Audrey Kurth Cronin
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It’s one thing to say that the study of history is “relevant” to contemporary problems; it’s another to demonstrate it. In How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns(Princeton UP, 2009), Audrey Kurth Cronin does so in splendid fashion. She poses a common and very important question: what should we do about modern terrorism in general and Al-Qaeda in particular? To answer this query, she poses another (and quite original) question: how do terrorist campaigns usually end? The logic is simple and compelling: if we want to stop a terrorist campaign, we would do well to understand how terrorist campaigns generally stop. To do this, she reviews the history of modern terrorist campaigns, analyses the means by which they ended, and then presents an original typology of endings. With said typology, she can tell us what works in terms of anti-terrorism and what doesn’t in what circumstances. For example, her research shows that “decapitating” Al-Qaeda won’t work; other leaders will (and already have) sprung up to continue the terror campaign. Neither will negotiating with Al-Qaeda work because: a) there is no one to negotiate with and b) Al-Qaeda has no coherent list of demands. The cases Cronin examines suggest an entirely different approach, one that promotes the (already on-going) disintegration of Al-Qaeda from within. Al-Qaeda, Cronin says, is showing signs of imploding; we should just help it along.
This is a rich book and a model of how to use history for policy-making. I think I’ll send President Obama a copy.
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{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }
Interesting discussion but I wish Kurth Cronin had tried to define terrorism. She said something at one point about terrorists targetting civilians, but has there been any war in the last 100 years that hasn’t targetted mostly civilians? Think about bombing campaigns, naval blockades, etc. Maybe the difference is scale? Small scale, you’re a terrorist, big scale, it’s legit warfare?
Baader-Meinhof did not end after decapitation, not at all. It continued effective operation till the early 90s – with decapitation (the alleged assasination of its first generation) as one their major arguments.
Great interview, really fascinating research by Kronen.
Baader-Meinhof did not end after decapitation, not at all. It continued effective operation till the early 90s – with decapitation (the alleged assasination of its first generation) as one their major arguments.
Great interview, really fascinating research by Kronen.